Battery demand: driven by power + energy storage, the compound growth rate is expected to reach 39.5% in the next three years

Battery demand: We believe that new energy vehicles and energy storage will be the main force driving the growth of battery demand in the next few years. It is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 24.26 million in 2025, corresponding to the demand for power batteries of 1750GWh; with the improvement of energy economy and the improvement of business model, we expect energy storage to maintain a rapid growth trend. It is estimated that the installed battery of energy storage is expected to reach 502GWh in 2025; plus consumption, two-wheeled vehicles, electric tools and other demands, we expect the total battery demand in 2025 will reach 2442GWh.

Demand for sodium-ion batteries: We believe that sodium-ion batteries will be mainly used in power (mainly low-end scenarios), energy storage, and two-wheeled vehicles. It is assumed that their penetration rates in the fields of power, energy storage, and two-wheeled vehicles will reach 2%, 20%, 10% in 2025, correspondingly, the demand for sodium batteries will reach 140GWh.

Demand for aluminum foil: Assuming that the unit consumption of aluminum foil for lithium batteries and sodium batteries remains unchanged at 350 and 750 tons/GWh respectively, it is estimated that the global battery aluminum foil demand will be 478, 656, and 910 thousand tons in 2023~2025, respectively, the CAGR will be 39.5 % in the next three years.